Short Correction Or Longer Bear Market?
This has been the roughest start to a year for equities in decades. The SP500 is down nearly 20% and recently closed below one key benchmark of the 100-week moving average. So the question now is… is the pain over or are we facing a longer and deeper pullback in markets?
In the attached chart for SPY since 2000, I marked each time price dropped below the 100-week moving average (blue line). Here is what you can see:
There are 7 events prior to our current position.
3 of them we corrections that exceeded 20%.
2000 and 2007 were significant downturns of nearly 50% or more.
In each case of steeper corrections, including now. Interest rates were rising for more than a year prior to the pullback. (See the blue lines on the $TNX -10 year Treasury Yield) on the bottom portion of the chart. And look where we are now. We have rising rates and a drop below the 100.
In each historic case of short-term, smaller corrections, the Fed stepped in with more market liquidity, lower rates, and easing - including during the Covid Plunge.
So my sense is probabilities favor a longer, deeper bear market than we have seen in years. The Fed has indicated higher rates and less market liquidity going forward in order to stop inflation. We will not see improvements until inflation rates ease, we experience a recession, and/or the Fed slows its speed of interest rate increases.
Our V2 Model does not trade on the 100-week moving average. We do use it as one of our many data points.
Our V2 Model tracks over 120 asset class ratio trends to assist us in deciding how and when to allocate our holdings. No single indicator, chart, or list gives market clarity. They each give a point of view that we factor into our model. We do not forecast. We follow the math. It has led us to remarkable long-term performance.
V2 is currently up 3% YTD while the SP500 is down nearly 18%.
If you are not a Member and would like to see our V2 holdings, allocations, history, and changes as they occur I urge you to subscribe below.
Distance=Victory
Chris
The V2 Model has gained an impressive 1,454%% from 2016 through 2021.
6X the performance of SP500 (2016-2021)
+83.27% 3-Year Annualized Returns (2019-2021)
+69.22% 5-Year Annualized Returns (2017-2021)
V2 Newsletter performance rank compared to all ETFs:
Top 10% 2021 (#243 out of 2867)
Top 1% 3-Year (#9 out of 1896)
Top 1% 5-Year (#4 out of 1896)
Market Data From Morningstar and Etrade.
We do not anticipate what is going to happen. We allocate based on where things are. We do not forecast, we follow the math and work to get on the right side of the next extended trend.
V2 is a proprietary investment Model the results of which we make available in our newsletter. We give our holdings, changes before they occur, our allocations, and performance on an ongoing basis. You can discover more about the Model, our performance, and how it works by checking out our website.
We have researched and developed a pool of common and popular ETFs. We will select which ETFs to invest in based on market conditions and our short-term, medium-term, and long-term trends. We will also model asset class ratio behavior for our decision-making process. Leverage will be used when appropriate and we will short the market in a downturn. If no investments meet our rules, we will go to cash. We will change holdings at any time during the month.
The investment picks may be in large-cap growth, treasuries, leverage, derivatives. We may short the market or go to cash. Holdings may include SPXU, SDS, SH, SPY, SSO, UPRO, TLT, AGG, TQQQ, SQQQ, or CASH at any time.
Chris Vig is president of The Vig Company and is an investor, artist, author, business consultant and former CEO living in Monona, WI. This article is for entertainment purposes only. We may own, buy, or sell any security listed here at any time. Do your own diligence when investing your hard-earned cash. Follow The Vig Company on Facebook.
You can learn more about the model, its holdings, and how it works by going through each link on our website. The V2 newsletter is available for $15 a month. And of course, you can unsubscribe at any time.
THE VIG COMPANY LLC INFORMATION AND NEWSLETTERS ARE NOT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL SECURITIES. WE ARE SIMPLY LISTING THE RESULTS OF OUR MODEL. WE MAY BUY, HOLD, OR SELL ANY SECURITY LISTED IN OUR INFORMATION AT ANY TIME. WE ARE NOT REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISORS AND HAVE NO UNDERSTANDING OF YOUR PERSONAL FINANCIAL SITUATION, RISK TOLERANCES, OR INVESTING OBJECTIVES. ANY INVESTMENT DECISIONS YOU MAKE ARE YOUR OWN. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN DILIGENCE WHEN INVESTING YOUR HARD-EARNED MONEY.
COPYRIGHT 2020 THE VIG COMPANY LLC 6203 RIDGEWOOD AVE. MONONA, WI 53716. THEVIGCO@GMAIL.COM